Okay, this could be important - pay attention: 2016 margins (all for Trump) FL - 1.2 GA - 5.1 NC - 3.7 Projected margins for 2020 for the NYT needle (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html) [...]
Keeping a real close eye on Ohio; Biden's doing considerably better than Clinton in urban and suburban areas. If rural areas hold from 2016 for Trump, but don't improve, that could be [...]
So far, the biggest polling errors seem to be among the Latinx vote; the projections on the white and Black vote seem to be more or less in line with the polls. [...]
Don't read too much into FL - it's an odd state politically that doesn't correlate well with other states (translation: other states aren't necessarily going to follow its lead). The real issue [...]
Remember, Biden doesn't need any of these - and with just 1, his chances go up to over 95%. So, just bear that all in mind. It's very, very early, and very [...]
FL is an odd state that doesn't correlate well with other states, but I'm particularly worried about the numbers in Sumter County (home of the Villages). I'm wondering if senior % for [...]
Emotional support parakeet hard at work!
Comments by selected states: 1. Iowa - Need to agree with Selzer here until proven otherwise. 2. Maine - Collins seems to have made it closer of late, but Maine seems to [...]