Okay, this could be important – pay attention:
2016 margins (all for Trump)
FL – 1.2
GA – 5.1
NC – 3.7
Projected margins for 2020 for the NYT needle (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html) (all for Trump, but…)
FL – 3.1 (1.9 worse than Hillary)
GA – 3.4 (1.7 better than Hillary)
NC – 1.3 (2.4 better than Hillary)
So, not looking good for Biden in the sunbelt, but… Covid is raging in the Midwest more than the south (which benefits Biden) and once you get the idiosyncratic FL out of the way, the numbers look solid for Biden, especially considering other early signals out of OH, KS, and other Midwestern states.